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Pandemic progress: how H1N1 spread

The Ottawa Citizen

Published: Saturday, August 29, 2009

April

WHO alert levels:

April 13

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First recorded fatality

April 26

First Canadian cases

April 27: Level 4

'Increase in risk of pandemic'

April 29: Level 5

'Imminent' pandemic

May

May 20

Cases: 10,000+; Deaths: 80

June

June 11: Level 6: Pandemic declared

Countries affected: 74

Cases: 27,000+

Deaths: 141

July

July 24

Countries affected: 160+

Deaths: 800

6 Mexican officials declare an alert following an outbreak of "swine flu" in the town of La Gloria. About 60 per cent of the town of 3,000 are affected.

13 The first recorded fatality occurs, a 39-year-old woman in Oaxaca, Mexico.

16 Mexico contacts Pan-American Health Organization, an arm of the World Health Organization, over the illness.

22 The Mexican health ministry issues a nationwide alert and samples are sent to Canada for testing.

23 U.S. public health officials announce that seven people in California and Texas have been diagnosed with a flu virus known as H1N1, but all seven recovered. Canadian public health authorities announce that the Mexican "swine flu" virus is the H1N1 virus.

24 The WHO announces that around 800 suspected cases of H1N1 have been recorded in Mexico, including 60 suspected deaths. Health authorities around the world go on alert.

25 An emergency committee of the WHO meeting in Geneva warns that the virus has "pandemic potential." Mexico orders isolation of sick people and closes many public establishments.

26 Canadian officials confirm four cases of H1N1 on the country's east coast.

27 WHO raises its alert level from 3 to 4 on a scale of 6, meaning there is sustained human-to-human transmission of the virus causing outbreaks in at least one country and signalling a "significant increase in risk of a pandemic."

28 Costa Rica confirms instances of H1N1, the first country in Central America to be hit by the virus. Israel confirms its first case of swine flu, the first Middle Eastern country.

29 Ten New Zealand students are confirmed to have H1N1 flu after returning from a study trip to Mexico.

29A 23-month-old Mexican child is the first confirmed death in the United States and the first one outside Mexico. WHO raises alert level to 5, calling on countries to prepare for an "imminent" pandemic. The first cases involving people who had not visited Mexico are confirmed in the United States, Spain and Germany.

30 WHO adopts the term "influenza A (H1N1)" after veterinary experts say disease is not occurring among pigs.

30 Egypt says it intends to slaughter its entire pig population, even though no cases have been detected there and despite the WHO pronouncement that H1N1 cannot be caught from eating properly prepared pork. This leads to clashes with the Christian minority, who keep most of Egypt's 400,000 pigs.

30The Netherlands, Switzerland and Ireland confirm instances of the virus.

1 Police in Hong Kong seal off the Metropark hotel after test results on a 25-year-old Mexican man confirmed he has the virus. The WHO warns that the traditional flu vaccines have little effect against the virus.

2 South Korea confirms its first instance of the virus, isolating a 51-year-old woman who had returned from a trip to Mexico. France, Denmark and Italy report their first confirmed cases of H1N1. India says it is monitoring a suspected case of H1N1.

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the panic is worldwide

Half of U.S. may get infected with H1N1: Experts

by Priya Markanda - August 26, 2009

Washington, August 26: The President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology Monday estimated that the H1N1 influenza has the capacity to infect half of the U.S. population, hospitalize more than 1.8 million people and cause 90,000 deaths.

These numbers appear in an 86-page report, assessing government's response to the first pandemic influenza in the last 41 years, submitted to the White House.

The presidential panel estimated that the pandemic disease could infect more than 60 million to 120 million people during the fall of next season.

Panel's findings
According to Harold Varmus of New York's Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, who co-chairs the 21-member council, “This is going to be fairly serious," said. "It's going to stress every aspect of our health system.”

However, Mark Lipsitch of the Harvard School of Public Health said that the estimates of the "plausible scenario" are based on assumptions, focusing mainly on the swine flu behavior in U.S. during the 1957-58 Asian flu.

“They are not a prediction, but they are a possibility,” he said. “If it turned out to affect a lot more adults, the severity would be a lot worse.”

The panel also pointed out that though more elderly people succumb to the regular flu, H1N1 virus is more likely to kill young adults and children.

World-wide swine flu deaths
Approximately, 2000 people so far have died due to the H1N1 influenza since its outbreak in the month of April, according to the World Health Organization. In all, more than 200,000 laboratory-confirmed swine flu infections have been reported to the global health watchdog.

Australia: The death toll from swine flu in the country has reached 138, with two confirmed deaths in the Australian Capital Territory, 36 in North South Wales, six in the Northern Territory, 30 in Queensland, 15 in Southern Territory, six in Tasmania, 24 in Victoria and 19 in Western Territory.

Britain: Fresh 10 swine flu deaths have been confirmed last week, bringing the total death toll in the UK to 59 and affecting multiple more.

India: Swine flu deaths continued in India as well with a 44-year-old woman and a 28-year-old man succumbing to the virus in Delhi and Bangalore respectively, pushing the pandemic toll to 76.

Peru: With 18 new deaths in Peru during the past eight days, the count has risen to 80, Peru Health Ministry said. The latest deaths occurred in the regions of Lima (six), Moquegua (three), Tacna (two), Arequipa (two), Lambayeque (two), Ayacucho (one), La Libertad (one) and Piura (one).

South Africa: The worst predictions of the WHO about swine flu are coming true in SA after another two deaths were announced in the country yesterday, taking the toll to 20. More than 5000 people in South Africa have now contracted swine flu, and two pregnant moms in the Eastern Cape have died recently.

Taiwan: The country has so far recorded five deaths and 38,000 infected patients with a rate of 14,000 new cases a week, according to the Centers for Disease Control. The three latest patients included a 23-year-old man, a 23-year-old woman and a 15-year-old boy.

Thailand: A health ministry official has reported 8 more swine flu-related deaths in Thailand, bringing the total to 119.

U.S.: The largest toll has been recorded in North and South America, with approximately 1600 deaths reported so far.

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