Half of U.S. may get infected with H1N1: Experts

by Priya Markanda - August 26, 2009

Washington, August 26: The President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology Monday estimated that the H1N1 influenza has the capacity to infect half of the U.S. population, hospitalize more than 1.8 million people and cause 90,000 deaths.

These numbers appear in an 86-page report, assessing government's response to the first pandemic influenza in the last 41 years, submitted to the White House.

The presidential panel estimated that the pandemic disease could infect more than 60 million to 120 million people during the fall of next season.

Panel's findings
According to Harold Varmus of New York's Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, who co-chairs the 21-member council, “This is going to be fairly serious," said. "It's going to stress every aspect of our health system.”

However, Mark Lipsitch of the Harvard School of Public Health said that the estimates of the "plausible scenario" are based on assumptions, focusing mainly on the swine flu behavior in U.S. during the 1957-58 Asian flu.

“They are not a prediction, but they are a possibility,” he said. “If it turned out to affect a lot more adults, the severity would be a lot worse.”

The panel also pointed out that though more elderly people succumb to the regular flu, H1N1 virus is more likely to kill young adults and children.

World-wide swine flu deaths
Approximately, 2000 people so far have died due to the H1N1 influenza since its outbreak in the month of April, according to the World Health Organization. In all, more than 200,000 laboratory-confirmed swine flu infections have been reported to the global health watchdog.

Australia: The death toll from swine flu in the country has reached 138, with two confirmed deaths in the Australian Capital Territory, 36 in North South Wales, six in the Northern Territory, 30 in Queensland, 15 in Southern Territory, six in Tasmania, 24 in Victoria and 19 in Western Territory.

Britain: Fresh 10 swine flu deaths have been confirmed last week, bringing the total death toll in the UK to 59 and affecting multiple more.

India: Swine flu deaths continued in India as well with a 44-year-old woman and a 28-year-old man succumbing to the virus in Delhi and Bangalore respectively, pushing the pandemic toll to 76.

Peru: With 18 new deaths in Peru during the past eight days, the count has risen to 80, Peru Health Ministry said. The latest deaths occurred in the regions of Lima (six), Moquegua (three), Tacna (two), Arequipa (two), Lambayeque (two), Ayacucho (one), La Libertad (one) and Piura (one).

South Africa: The worst predictions of the WHO about swine flu are coming true in SA after another two deaths were announced in the country yesterday, taking the toll to 20. More than 5000 people in South Africa have now contracted swine flu, and two pregnant moms in the Eastern Cape have died recently.

Taiwan: The country has so far recorded five deaths and 38,000 infected patients with a rate of 14,000 new cases a week, according to the Centers for Disease Control. The three latest patients included a 23-year-old man, a 23-year-old woman and a 15-year-old boy.

Thailand: A health ministry official has reported 8 more swine flu-related deaths in Thailand, bringing the total to 119.

U.S.: The largest toll has been recorded in North and South America, with approximately 1600 deaths reported so far.

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